基于误差估值累加开环校正的诱导式欺骗检测方法

诱导式卫星欺骗干扰可诱导航空器逐渐偏离预定航迹，难以被发现，因此及时有效地检测干扰是飞行安全的保障。在现有紧组合导航体制基础上，设计了一种基于误差估值累加开环校正的紧组合导航结构，并证明了其性能与传统闭环校正紧组合导航性能等效。在此结构中，将紧组合导航系统与自适应序贯概率比检测方法结合，提出了一种基于误差估值累加开环校正的诱导式欺骗检测方法，融合紧组合导航信息与其他不受欺骗影响的导航信息，构建欺骗检测统计量进行诱导式欺骗检测。仿真结果表明，开环校正结构可避免随时间累加的惯性导航系统误差所导致的组合导航滤波器发散问题，同时欺骗检测方法可进一步提高算法对“最坏”情形下微小诱导式欺骗的检测效果。     

Superswelling Microneedle Arrays for Dermal Interstitial Fluid (Prote)Omics

The noninvasive sampling of dermal interstitial fluid (ISF) for the monitoring of clinical biomarkers is a greatly appealing area of research. The identification of molecular biomarkers in biological fluids has been accelerated with -omics analyses but remains limited in ISF because of its time-consuming and complex extraction process. Here, the generation of microneedle (MN) patches made of superabsorbent acrylate-based hydrogels for the rapid sampling of dermal ISF is described to explore its proteome. In depth, iterative optimization allows the identification of novel acrylate-based compositions with the required chemical, mechanical, and biocompatibility properties allowing proteomic analysis of the extracted ISF for the first time after sampling with swelling MNs. The generated MN arrays show no cytotoxic effect, successfully cross the stratum corneum, and can collect up to 6 µL of dermal ISF in 10 min in vivo. Proteomics lead to the detection of 176 clinically relevant biomarkers in the collected samples validating the use of ISF as a relevant bodily fluid for disease monitoring and diagnostic. Importantly, it is discovered that extraction fingerprint is strongly dependent on the MNs chemistry, and thus specific biomarkers could be selectively extracted by tuning the composition of the patch, making the system versatile and specific.     

Estimates of daily oxygen consumption,carbon dioxide and methane emissions,and heat production for beef and dairy cattle using spot gas sampling

A simulation study was conducted to examine accuracy of estimating daily O₂ consumption, CO₂ and CH₄ emissions, and heat production (HP) using a spot sampling technique and to determine optimal spot sampling frequency (FQ). Data were obtained from 3 experiments where daily O₂ consumption, emissions of CO₂ and CH₄, and HP were measured using indirect calorimetry (respiration chamber or headbox system). Experiment 1 used 8 beef heifers (ad libitum feeding; gaseous exchanges measured every 30 min over 3 d in respiration chambers); Experiment 2 used 56 lactating Holstein-Friesian cows (restricted feeding; gaseous exchanges measured every 12 min over 3 d in respiration chambers); Experiment 3 used 12 lactating Jersey cows (ad libitum feeding; gaseous exchanges measured every hour for 1 d using headbox style chambers). Within experiment, averages of all measurements (FQALL) and averages of measurements selected at time points with 12, 8, 6, or 4 spot sampling FQ (i.e., sampling every 2, 3, 4, and 6 h in a 24-h cycle, respectively; FQ12, FQ8, FQ6, and FQ4, respectively) were compared. Within study a mixed model was used to compare gaseous exchanges and HP among FQALL, FQ12, FQ8, FQ6, and FQ4, and an interaction of dietary treatment by FQ was examined. A regression model was used to evaluate accuracy of spot sampling within study [i.e., FQALL (observed) vs. FQ12, FQ8, FQ6, or FQ4 (estimated)]. No interaction of diet by FQ was observed for any variables except for CH₄ production in experiment 1. No FQ effect was observed for gaseous exchanges and HP except in experiment 2 where CO₂ production was less (5,411 vs. 5,563 L/d) for FQ4 compared with FQALL, FQ12, and FQ8. A regression analysis between FQALL and each FQ within study showed that slopes and intercepts became farther from 1 and 0, respectively, for almost all variables as FQ decreased. Most variables for FQ12 and FQ8 had root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) less than 10% of the mean and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) greater than 0.80, and RMSPE increased and CCC decreased as FQ decreased. When a regression analysis was conducted with combined data from the 3 experiments (mixed model with study as a random effect), results agreed with those from the analysis for the individual studies. Prediction errors increased and CCC decreased as FQ decreased. Generally, all the estimates from FQ12, FQ8, FQ6, and FQ4 had RMSPE less than 10% of the means and CCC greater than 0.90 except for FQ6 and FQ4 for O₂ consumption and CH₄ production. In conclusion, the spot sampling simulation with 3 indirect calorimetry experiments indicated that FQ of at least 8 samples (every 3 h in a 24-h cycle) was required to estimate daily O₂ consumption, CO₂ and CH₄ production, and HP and to detect changes in those in response to dietary treatments. This sampling FQ may be considered when using techniques that measure spot gas exchanges such as the GreenFeed and face mask systems.     

用于厚屏蔽小探测器的蒙特卡罗模拟减方差方法研究

反应堆屏蔽计算中经常出现厚屏蔽、小探测器问题，常规蒙特卡罗方法难以有效解决。基于自动重要抽样（AIS）方法，本文提出了小探测器自动重要抽样(SDAIS)方法，并针对小探测器问题，优化了AIS方法的虚粒子赌分裂算法。该方法在自主开发的蒙特卡罗屏蔽程序MCShield上进行了实现。使用NUREG/CR-6115 PWR基准题验证该方法的正确性和计算效率。结果表明，SDAIS方法可有效地解决厚屏蔽小探测器问题，相比AIS方法及传统的重要性方法，计算效率提升1~2个量级。     

Bootstrap procedures for detecting multiple persistence shifts in heteroskedastic time series

This article proposes new bootstrap procedures for detecting multiple persistence shifts in a time series driven by non-stationary volatility. The assumed volatility process can accommodate discrete breaks, smooth transition variation as well as trending volatility. We develop wild bootstrap sup-Wald tests of the null hypothesis that the process is either stationary [I(0)] or has a unit root [I(1)] throughout the sample. We also propose a sequential procedure to estimate the number of persistence breaks based on ordering the regime-specific bootstrap p-values. The asymptotic validity of the advocated procedures is established both under the null of stability and a variety of persistence change alternatives. A comparison with existing tests that assume homoskedasticity illustrates the finite sample improvements offered by our methods. An application to OECD inflation rates highlights the empirical relevance of the proposed approach and weakens the case for persistence change relative to existing procedures.     

Household endotoxin reduction in the Louisa Environmental Intervention Project for rural childhood asthma

Endotoxin exacerbates asthma. We designed the Louisa Environmental Intervention Project (LEIP) and assessed its effectiveness in reducing household endotoxin and improving asthma symptoms in rural Iowa children. Asthmatic school children (N = 104 from 89 homes) of Louisa and Keokuk counties in Iowa (aged 5-14 years) were recruited and block-randomized to receive extensive (education + professional cleaning) or educational interventions. Environmental sampling collection and respiratory survey administration were done at baseline and during three follow-up visits. Mixed-model analyses were used to assess the effect of the intervention on endotoxin levels and asthma symptoms in the main analysis and of endotoxin reduction on asthma symptoms in exploratory analysis. In the extensive intervention group, dust endotoxin load was significantly reduced in post-intervention visits. The extensive compared with the educational intervention was associated with significantly decreased dust endotoxin load in farm homes and less frequent nighttime asthma symptoms. In exploratory analysis, dust endotoxin load reduction from baseline was associated with lower total asthma symptoms score (Odds ratio: 0.52, 95% confidence interval: 0.29-0.92). In conclusion, the LEIP intervention reduced household dust endotoxin and improved asthma symptoms. However, endotoxin reductions were not sustained post-intervention by residents.     

基于BP神经网络的条带刚凸特征回弹预测

为了研究核燃料组件格架的条带刚凸特征的回弹量与压边力、冲压速度、凸凹模间隙、摩擦系数等冲压工艺参数之间的关系,首先,获取包含50个GA拉丁超立方抽样的数据点以及10个随机抽样的数据点的数据集,前者作为训练集、后者作为测试集。将前者输入到BP神经网络进行训练,后者验证训练模型的精度。最后,通过响应面图研究各因素之间的交互作用以及各因素的敏感程度。结果表明:BP神经网络能够有效预测刚凸回弹量与冲压工艺参数之间的关系,相对于其他因素,压边力对回弹量的影响特别明显,冲压速度对回弹量的影响不明显,但与凸凹模间隙和摩擦系数有明显的交互作用。     

A case-deletion diagnostic for penalized calibration estimators and BLUP under linear mixed models in survey sampling

The penalized calibration technique in survey sampling combines usual calibration and soft calibration by introducing a penalty term. Certain relevant estimates in survey sampling can be considered as penalized calibration estimates obtained as particular cases from an optimization problem with a common basic structure. In this framework, a case deletion diagnostic is proposed for a class of penalized calibration estimators including both design-based and model-based estimators. The diagnostic compares finite population parameter estimates and can be calculated from quantities related to the full data set. The resulting diagnostic is a function of the residual and leverage, as other diagnostics in regression models, and of the calibration weight, a singular feature in survey sampling. Moreover, a particular case, which includes the basic unit level model for small area estimation, is considered. Both a real and an artificial example are included to illustrate the diagnostic proposed. The results obtained clearly show that the proposed diagnostic depends on the calibration and soft-calibration variables, on the penalization term, as well as on the parameter to estimate.     

Gradient-based recursive parameter estimation for a periodically nonuniformly sampled-data Hammerstein–Wiener system based on the key-term separation

The identification of the Hammerstein–Wiener (H-W) systems based on the nonuniform input–output dataset remains a challenging problem. This article studies the identification problem of a periodically nonuniformly sampled-data H-W system. In addition, the product terms of the parameters in the H-W system are inevitable. In order to solve the problem, the key-term separation is applied and two algorithms are proposed. One is the key-term-based forgetting factor stochastic gradient (KT-FFSG) algorithm based on the gradient search. The other is the key-term-based hierarchical forgetting factor stochastic gradient (KT-HFFSG) algorithm. Compared with the KT-FFSG algorithm, the KT-HFFSG algorithm gives more accurate estimates. The simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithms are effective.     

GOS+MU:一种查询对象选择新方法

在分析单一MU(Most Uncertainty)采样缺陷的基础上,提出一种"全局最优搜寻"方法 GOS(Global Optimal Search),并结合MU共同完成查询选择。GOS+MU方法中,GOS着眼全局寻找目标,在应用环境能提供的训练样本数量有限、分类器受训不充分时,该方法选择的对象学习价值高,能快速推进分类器学习进程;MU则能够在GOS采样失效情形下,利用分类器当前训练成果,选择查询不确定性最强的样本补充训练集。通过对网络商品的用户评论进行分类仿真,并比较其他采样学习方法的效果,证明了GOS+MU方法在压缩学习成本、提高训练效率方面的有效性。